Evaluating the effectiveness of impact-based severe weather Early Warning Systems for Flood Risk Management in South Africa: A conceptual review

Thembakazi Precious SosiboORCID iD, Leonard ChitongoORCID iD, Lwanda MatisoORCID iD & Siyanda NkwenkweORCID iD 

Issue: Vol. 7 No.9 2026 Article 16 pp.2693 – 2707
DOI: https://doi.org/10.38159/ehass.20267916 Published online 28th October 2026

© 2026 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CCBY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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Flooding remains one of the most frequent and destructive hydro-meteorological hazards in South Africa, causing substantial socio-economic losses, infrastructure damage, and threats to human life. In response to increasing flood risks associated with climate variability and extreme weather events, the South African Weather Service has increasingly adopted impact-based severe weather early warning systems designed to communicate not only meteorological hazards but also their likely consequences for communities, infrastructure, and livelihoods. This conceptual review examined the effectiveness of these systems in strengthening flood risk management in South Africa. The paper synthesised theoretical and policy perspectives on impact-based early warning systems and critically reviewed institutional, socio-economic, and communication factors that shape their effectiveness. The findings indicate that while South Africa has made significant progress in transitioning from hazard-based to impact-based warning systems, challenges related to institutional coordination, dissemination gaps, community risk perception, and socio-economic vulnerabilities continue to undermine their effectiveness. The paper further identifies emerging opportunities linked to technological innovation, participatory governance, and community resilience. The study concludes by highlighting the need for context-specific empirical research in vulnerable flood-prone communities such as Port St Johns. This study contributes to disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation scholarship by synthesising theoretical, policy, and institutional perspectives on impact-based flood early warning systems in South Africa. It identifies key institutional, socio-economic, and communication factors that affect system effectiveness, highlights research gaps, and provides a conceptual foundation for future research and evidence-based flood risk management.

Keywords: Impact-based Warning Systems, Flood Risk Management, South Africa, Disaster Risk Reduction, Early Warning Systems.

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Thembakazi Precious Sosibo is a Master’s student in Geography at Walter Sisulu University in the Department of Biological and Environmental Science. She holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Environmental Studies and a Bachelor of Science Honours degree in Geography. Her master’s research investigates impact-based severe weather early warning systems from a flood risk management perspective. She is currently an Occupational Health and Safety Inspector Intern at the Department of Employment and Labour in Port Shepstone, KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa. Her academic and professional interests include disaster risk reduction, environmental management, climate change, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), occupational health and safety, and sustainable development.

Leonard Chitongo (PhD) is a Senior Lecturer in Human Geography in the Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences at Walter Sisulu University, South Africa. His research focuses on human and social development, socio-economic transformation, rural and urban resilience, livelihoods, housing, and public policy. His work examines how communities, households and institutions respond to socio-economic, environmental and spatial challenges, particularly within the Global South. He has published extensively in peer-reviewed journals and contributes to research, teaching and postgraduate supervision in human geography and related fields. His interdisciplinary research interests also encompass sustainable development, governance, climate adaptation and community resilience.

Dr. Lwanda Matiso is a Lecturer in the Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences at Walter Sisulu University, South Africa. His research focuses on atmospheric dynamics, climate variability, environmental change, and sustainable development, with a special emphasis on the consequences for vulnerable rural people and natural resource-based livelihoods in South Africa. He has studied rainfall and temperature variability, extreme weather events, and their effects on agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and community resilience utilising Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing, and spatial analysis. His research interests encompass climate change adaptation, smallholder agriculture, soil and land resource management, environmental management, waste management, the circular economy, and sustainable development. He uses an interdisciplinary approach to develop knowledge that promotes evidence-based environmental decision-making and resilient, sustainable rural livelihoods.

Siyanda Nkwenkwe is a Lecturer in Geography and Environmental Sciences at Walter Sisulu University, South Africa, and a PhD candidate in Geography. Her research focuses on rural water security, water quality, environmental sustainability, and rural livelihoods. Her doctoral research investigates spring water resources, examining their availability, quality, and significance for rural households in the Eastern Cape. Her broader scholarly contributions encompass agricultural livelihoods, environmental health, and waste management. Through research, teaching, and postgraduate supervision, she seeks to advance interdisciplinary understanding of environmental challenges, resource governance, and sustainable development, with particular emphasis on equitable resource access and rural community wellbeing.

Sosibo, Thembakazi Precious, Leonard Chitongo, Lwanda Matiso, and Siyanda Nkwenkwe. “Evaluating the effectiveness of impact-based severe weather Early Warning Systems for Flood Risk Management in South Africa: A conceptual review.” E-Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences 7, no.9 (2026): 2693 – 2707. https://doi.org/10.38159/ehass.20267916

© 2026 The Author(s). Published and Maintained by Noyam Journals. This is an open access article under the CCBY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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