Investigating Durban's Morphological Dynamics and Spatial Prediction Techniques for Urban Geography Pedagogy

Investigating Durban’s Morphological Dynamics and Spatial Prediction Techniques for Urban Geography Pedagogy

Tolulope Ayodeji Olatoye & Raymond Nkwenti Fru

Issue: Vol.6 No. 7 2025 Article 6 pp.492 – 512
DOI : https://doi.org/10.38159/jelt.2025676 | Published online 28th July, 2025.
© 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CCBY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

90 Downloads

Download Now!

ABSTRACT

This study highlighted the transformative potential of geospatial analysis and spatial prediction techniques in using the dynamic morphology of Durban Metropolis as a model for fostering innovative, data-driven learning experiences. The methodology integrated quantitative and geospatial data analysis of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes from 2004 to 2024 using Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based change detection tools to identify and predict LULC change patterns in 2034. The research findings revealed that built-up areas expanded significantly from 123.21 km² (5.38%) in 2004 to 442.92 km² (19.32%) in 2024, while agricultural lands, dense vegetation, and water bodies steadily declined, signalling ongoing environmental changes and urban pressures that are predicted to intensify to 520.3 km² (22.7%) by 2034. The study concluded that Durban Metropolis is rapidly expanding with a concomitant decline in vegetation LULC, thus highlighting the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and environmental conservation strategies. These findings have profound implications for urban geography pedagogy, providing data-driven insights that enhance curriculum development, equip students with spatial analysis skills, and promote informed decision-making on urban sustainability challenges. This study is original in integrating historical LULC analysis, GIS-based spatial modelling, and urban geography pedagogy, thereby offering a novel approach to linking urban studies with educational applications. This study recommends the integration of GIS-based predictive modelling into urban geography education, contributing to research knowledge by offering an innovative, data-driven approach that enhances spatial literacy, informs sustainable urban planning, and empowers students with real-world analytical skills for addressing future urban challenges.

Keywords: Education Curriculum, Geography Pedagogy, Geo-Spatial Analysis, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Spatial Intelligence.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Cobbinah, Patrick B, and Moses Addaney. Sustainable Urban Futures in Africa. New York: Routledge, 2022.

Fox, Sean, and Tom Goodfellow. Cities and Development. Routledge, 2016.

Ghosh, Pramit, Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Abhra Chanda, Parimal Mondal, Anirban Akhand, Sandip Mukherjee, S K Nayak, Subhajit Ghosh, Debasish Mitra, and Tuhin Ghosh. “Application of Cellular Automata and Markov-Chain Model in Geospatial Environmental Modeling-A Review.”Remote Sensing Applications:Society and Environment 5(2017):64–77.

Gu, Chaolin. “Urbanization: Processes and Driving Forces.” Science China Earth Sciences 62, no. 9 (2019): 1351–60.

Huang, Sha, Lina Tang, Joseph P Hupy, Yang Wang, and Guofan Shao. “A Commentary Review on the Use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Era of Popular Remote Sensing.” Journal of Forestry Research 32, no. 1 (2021): 1–6.

Huang, Yueh‐Min, Wei‐Sheng Wang, Hsin‐Yu Lee, Chia‐Ju Lin, and Ting‐Ting Wu. “Empowering Virtual Reality with Feedback and Reflection in Hands‐on Learning: Effect of Learning Engagement and Higher‐order Thinking.” Journal of Computer Assisted Learning 40, no. 4 (2024): 1413–27.

Hussain, Khadim, Kaleem Mehmood, Shoaib Ahmad Anees, Zhidan Ding, Sultan Muhammad, Tariq Badshah, Fahad Shahzad, Ijlal Haidar, Abdul Wahab, and Jamshid Ali. “Assessing Forest Fragmentation Due to Land Use Changes from 1992 to 2023: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Remote Sensing Data.” Heliyon 10, no. 14 (2024).

Karanam, Hari Krishna, and V B Neela. “Study of Normalized Difference Built-up (NDBI) Index in Automatically Mapping Urban Areas from Landsat TN Imagery.” Int J Eng Sci Math 8 (2017): 239–48.

Kerski, Joseph J. “Online, Engaged Instruction in Geography and GIS Using IoT Feeds, Web Mapping Services, and Field Tools within a Spatial Thinking Framework.” The Geography Teacher 19, no. 3 (2022): 93–101.

Lee, Jongwon. “Beyond Geospatial Inquiry—How Can We Integrate the Latest Technological Advances into Geography Education?” Education Sciences 13, no. 11 (November 13, 2023): 1128. https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci13111128.

Liu, Pengyuan, and Filip Biljecki. “A Review of Spatially-Explicit GeoAI Applications in Urban Geography.” International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 112 (2022): 102936.

Machakaire, Danai Gladman. “Transformation of Urban Planning Practices Using Geo-Spatial Technology in Managing Rapid Urbanisation in Harare: Zimbabwe.” Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2015.

Neumann, Barbara, Athanasios T Vafeidis, Juliane Zimmermann, and Robert J Nicholls. “Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding-a Global Assessment.” PloS One 10, no. 3 (2015): e0118571.

Olatoye, Tolulope Ayodeji, and Raymond Nkwenti Fru. “A Review towards Enhancing Geospatial Technologies in South African Rural Education.” Journal of Culture and Values in Education 7, no. 4 (December 25, 2024): 190–210. https://doi.org/10.46303/jcve.2024.48.

Olatoye, Tolulope Ayodeji, Sonwabo Perez Mazinyo, and Ahmed Mukalazi Kalumba. “The Utilization of Geospatial Technologies in Urban Vegetation Ecosystems Conservation: A Review.” Journal of Studies in Social Sciences and Humanities (JSSSH), no. 4 (2022): 387–401.

Olatoye, Tolulope Ayodeji, and Maheshvari Naidu. “Integrating Geo-Spatial Analysis with Cultural and Social Dynamics of Green Space Access in Durban Central Business District, South Africa,” n.d.

Roberts, Debra, Derek Morgan, Sean O’Donoghue, Lisa Guastella, Nongcebo Hlongwa, and Penny Price. “Durban, South Africa.” In Cities on a Finite Planet, 96–115. Routledge, 2016.

Rukmana, Deden. The Routledge Handbook of Planning Megacities in the Global South. New York: Taylor & Francis , 2020.

Sanchez-Sepulveda, Mónica, David Fonseca, Jordi Franquesa, and Ernesto Redondo. “Virtual Interactive Innovations Applied for Digital Urban Transformations. Mixed Approach.” Future Generation Computer Systems 91 (2019): 371–81.

Sterzel, Till, Matthias K B Lüdeke, Carsten Walther, Marcel T Kok, Diana Sietz, and Paul L Lucas. “Typology of Coastal Urban Vulnerability under Rapid Urbanization.” PloS One 15, no. 1 (2020): e0220936.

Sutherland, Catherine, Dianne Scott, Etienne Nel, and Adrian Nel. “Conceptualizing ‘the Urban’through the Lens of Durban, South Africa.” In Urban Forum, 29:333–50. Springer, 2018.

Sutherland, William J, Stuart H M Butchart, Ben Connor, Caroline Culshaw, Lynn V Dicks, Jason Dinsdale, Helen Doran, Abigail C Entwistle, Erica Fleishman, and David W Gibbons. “A 2018 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 33, no. 1 (2018): 47–58.

Tariq, Aqil, and Faisal Mumtaz. “A Series of Spatio-Temporal Analyses and Predicting Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Changes Using an Integrated Markov Chain and Cellular Automata Models.” Environmental Science and Pollution Research 30, no. 16 (2023): 47470–84.

Xu, Quanli, A-Xing Zhu, and Jing Liu. “Land-Use Change Modeling with Cellular Automata Using Land Natural Evolution Unit.” Catena 224 (2023): 106998.

Yengoh, Genesis T, David Dent, Lennart Olsson, Anna E Tengberg, and Compton J Tucker III. Use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to Assess Land Degradation at Multiple Scales: Current Status, Future Trends, and Practical Considerations. Springer, 2015.

Zlotnik, Hania. “World Urbanization: Trends and Prospects.” In New Forms of Urbanization, 43–64. Routledge, 2017.

AUTHOR(S)

Dr. Tolulope Ayodeji Olatoye is a Lecturer and Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in Geography at Sol Plaatje University, Kimberley, South Africa. He has a PhD degree in Geography & Environmental Science from the University of Fort Hare, South Africa, and two Masters degrees in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Geography respectively from Nigeria’s Premier University of Ibadan. Dr. Olatoye brings extensive research expertise in urban ecosystem conservation, coastal vegetation management, and sustainable forest practices. With over two decades of professional experience, Dr. Olatoye has held academic, research, and leadership roles. He has over 20 research publications in internationally accredited journals, book chapter publications and presented original research articles in over 20 international conferences. Recognized with scholarships and travel awards, he has contributed to high-impact projects and secured significant research grants such as the Andrew Mellon funded Project on Spatial Humanities and the NRF/NRF/DSI Global Change Programme of South Africa.

Dr. Raymond Nkwenti Fru is currently the Head of Department, Human Science Teaching at the Faculty of Education, Sol Plaatje University, Kimberley. South Africa. He is a Senior lecturer in History and Social Science Education. His research interest is in the area of school textbook analysis and other contentious and controversial discourses in History/Social Science Education.

TO CITE ARTICLE

Olatoye, Tolulope Ayodeji, and Raymond Nkwenti Fru. “Investigating Durban’s Morphological Dynamics and Spatial Prediction Techniques for Urban Geography Pedagogy.” Journal of Education and Learning Technology 6, no. 7 (2025). https://doi.org/10.38159/jelt.2025676.